According to @CNBC, JPMorgan has outlined a CPI-day reaction framework for U.S. equities that maps potential moves in the S&P 500, Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar based on upside or downside inflation surprises, providing traders with a scenario-based playbook ahead of Friday’s release. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/23/how-the-stock-market-will-react-to-the-cpi-report-friday-according-to-jpmorgan.html The report indicates equity, rates, and FX reactions are tiered by CPI surprise buckets, implying actionable hedging and positioning around risk-on/off shifts that can spill over to crypto beta via liquidity and dollar dynamics. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/23/how-the-stock-market-will-react-to-the-cpi-report-friday-according-to-jpmorgan.html For crypto, BTC and ETH tend to respond to CPI-driven moves in front-end yields and the DXY through risk sentiment and funding conditions, so traders should monitor BTC’s correlation to U.S. stocks and the dollar around the print. Source: https://research.kaiko.com

According to @rovercrc, Polymarket prediction markets assign a 97.5% probability that the Federal Reserve cuts rates, with an 85% chance the move is 25 bps (source: Polymarket market odds). Kaiko has reported a negative correlation between BTC performance and rising U.S. real yields in 2023–2024, highlighting why Fed easing odds are a key macro input for crypto positioning (source: Kaiko research). Traders should monitor BTC and ETH spot-perp basis, funding, options implied volatility, and DXY/UST2Y around the decision to validate the path implied by Polymarket pricing (source: Deribit and Glassnode derivatives dashboards; Polymarket odds).