According to The Kobeissi Letter, ADP data show U.S. companies shed about 2,500 jobs per week in October (ADP National Employment Report), while the U.S. Department of Labor reported 232,000 initial jobless claims for the week ended October 18 (U.S. Department of Labor); labor-market readings are a key input for Federal Reserve policy that transmits to rates and risk appetite across assets, including crypto (Federal Reserve).

According to @CNBC, JPMorgan has outlined a CPI-day reaction framework for U.S. equities that maps potential moves in the S&P 500, Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar based on upside or downside inflation surprises, providing traders with a scenario-based playbook ahead of Friday’s release. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/23/how-the-stock-market-will-react-to-the-cpi-report-friday-according-to-jpmorgan.html The report indicates equity, rates, and FX reactions are tiered by CPI surprise buckets, implying actionable hedging and positioning around risk-on/off shifts that can spill over to crypto beta via liquidity and dollar dynamics. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/23/how-the-stock-market-will-react-to-the-cpi-report-friday-according-to-jpmorgan.html For crypto, BTC and ETH tend to respond to CPI-driven moves in front-end yields and the DXY through risk sentiment and funding conditions, so traders should monitor BTC’s correlation to U.S. stocks and the dollar around the print. Source: https://research.kaiko.com

According to @rovercrc, Polymarket prediction markets assign a 97.5% probability that the Federal Reserve cuts rates, with an 85% chance the move is 25 bps (source: Polymarket market odds). Kaiko has reported a negative correlation between BTC performance and rising U.S. real yields in 2023–2024, highlighting why Fed easing odds are a key macro input for crypto positioning (source: Kaiko research). Traders should monitor BTC and ETH spot-perp basis, funding, options implied volatility, and DXY/UST2Y around the decision to validate the path implied by Polymarket pricing (source: Deribit and Glassnode derivatives dashboards; Polymarket odds).